fault probability
Lithium-Ion Battery System Health Monitoring and Fault Analysis from Field Data Using Gaussian Processes
Schaeffer, Joachim, Lenz, Eric, Gulla, Duncan, Bazant, Martin Z., Braatz, Richard D., Findeisen, Rolf
Health monitoring, fault analysis, and detection are critical for the safe and sustainable operation of battery systems. We apply Gaussian process resistance models on lithium iron phosphate battery field data to effectively separate the time-dependent and operating point-dependent resistance. The data set contains 29 battery systems returned to the manufacturer for warranty, each with eight cells in series, totaling 232 cells and 131 million data rows. We develop probabilistic fault detection rules using recursive spatiotemporal Gaussian processes. These processes allow the quick processing of over a million data points, enabling advanced online monitoring and furthering the understanding of battery pack failure in the field. The analysis underlines that often, only a single cell shows abnormal behavior or a knee point, consistent with weakest-link failure for cells connected in series, amplified by local resistive heating. The results further the understanding of how batteries degrade and fail in the field and demonstrate the potential of efficient online monitoring based on data. We open-source the code and publish the large data set upon completion of the review of this article. Lithium-Ion Batteries (LIBs) are essential for Electric Vehicles (EVs), grid storage, mobile applications, and consumer electronics. Over the last 30 years, remarkable advances have led to long-lasting cells with high energy efficiency and density [1]. The growth of production volume over the last decade is projected to continue [2, 3] mainly due to EVs and stationary storage, both needed for the transition to a sustainable future.
Efficient Model Based Diagnosis
In this paper an efficient model based diagnostic process is described for systems whose components possess a causal relation between their inputs and their outputs. In this diagnostic process, firstly, a set of focuses on likely broken components is determined. Secondly, for each focus the most informative probing point within the focus can be determined. Both these steps of the diagnostic process have a worst case time complexity of ${\cal O}(n^2)$ where $n$ is the number of components. If the connectivity of the components is low, however, the diagnostic process shows a linear time complexity. It is also shown how the diagnostic process described can be applied in dynamic systems and systems containing loops. When diagnosing dynamic systems it is possible to choose between detecting intermitting faults or to improve the diagnostic precision by assuming non-intermittency.
Decentralized Source Localization without Sensor Parameters in Wireless Sensor Networks
This paper studies the source (event) localization problem in decentralized wireless sensor networks (WSNs) under the fault model without knowing the sensor parameters. Event localizations have many applications such as localizing intruders, Wifi hotspots and users, and faults in power systems. Previous studies assume the true knowledge (or good estimates) of sensor parameters (e.g., fault model probability or Region of Influence (ROI) of the source) for source localization. However, we propose two methods to estimate the source location in this paper under the fault model: hitting set approach and feature selection method, which only utilize the noisy data set at the fusion center for estimation of the source location without knowing the sensor parameters. The proposed methods have been shown to localize the source effectively. We also study the lower bound on the sample complexity requirement for hitting set method. These methods have also been extended for multiple sources localizations. In addition, we modify the proposed feature selection approach to use maximum likelihood. Finally, extensive simulations are carried out for different settings (i.e., the number of sensor nodes and sample complexity) to validate our proposed methods in comparison to centroid, maximum likelihood, FTML, SNAP estimators.
Towards Better Response Times and Higher-Quality Queries in Interactive Knowledge Base Debugging
Many AI applications rely on knowledge encoded in a locigal knowledge base (KB). The most essential benefit of such logical KBs is the opportunity to perform automatic reasoning which however requires a KB to meet some minimal quality criteria such as consistency. Without adequate tool assistance, the task of resolving such violated quality criteria in a KB can be extremely hard, especially when the problematic KB is large and complex. To this end, interactive KB debuggers have been introduced which ask a user queries whether certain statements must or must not hold in the intended domain. The given answers help to gradually restrict the search space for KB repairs. Existing interactive debuggers often rely on a pool-based strategy for query computation. A pool of query candidates is precomputed, from which the best candidate according to some query quality criterion is selected to be shown to the user. This often leads to the generation of many unnecessary query candidates and thus to a high number of expensive calls to logical reasoning services. We tackle this issue by an in-depth mathematical analysis of diverse real-valued active learning query selection measures in order to determine qualitative criteria that make a query favorable. These criteria are the key to devising efficient heuristic query search methods. The proposed methods enable for the first time a completely reasoner-free query generation for interactive KB debugging while at the same time guaranteeing optimality conditions, e.g. minimal cardinality or best understandability for the user, of the generated query that existing methods cannot realize. Further, we study different relations between active learning measures. The obtained picture gives a hint about which measures are more favorable in which situation or which measures always lead to the same outcomes, based on given types of queries.
Interactive ontology debugging: two query strategies for efficient fault localization
Shchekotykhin, Kostyantyn, Friedrich, Gerhard, Fleiss, Philipp, Rodler, Patrick
Effective debugging of ontologies is an important prerequisite for their broad application, especially in areas that rely on everyday users to create and maintain knowledge bases, such as the Semantic Web. In such systems ontologies capture formalized vocabularies of terms shared by its users. However in many cases users have different local views of the domain, i.e. of the context in which a given term is used. Inappropriate usage of terms together with natural complications when formulating and understanding logical descriptions may result in faulty ontologies. Recent ontology debugging approaches use diagnosis methods to identify causes of the faults. In most debugging scenarios these methods return many alternative diagnoses, thus placing the burden of fault localization on the user. This paper demonstrates how the target diagnosis can be identified by performing a sequence of observations, that is, by querying an oracle about entailments of the target ontology. To identify the best query we propose two query selection strategies: a simple "split-in-half" strategy and an entropy-based strategy. The latter allows knowledge about typical user errors to be exploited to minimize the number of queries. Our evaluation showed that the entropy-based method significantly reduces the number of required queries compared to the "split-in-half" approach. We experimented with different probability distributions of user errors and different qualities of the a-priori probabilities. Our measurements demonstrated the superiority of entropy-based query selection even in cases where all fault probabilities are equal, i.e. where no information about typical user errors is available.
RIO: Minimizing User Interaction in Debugging of Knowledge Bases
Rodler, Patrick, Shchekotykhin, Kostyantyn, Fleiss, Philipp, Friedrich, Gerhard
The best currently known interactive debugging systems rely upon some meta-information in terms of fault probabilities in order to improve their efficiency. However, misleading meta information might result in a dramatic decrease of the performance and its assessment is only possible a-posteriori. Consequently, as long as the actual fault is unknown, there is always some risk of suboptimal interactions. In this work we present a reinforcement learning strategy that continuously adapts its behavior depending on the performance achieved and minimizes the risk of using low-quality meta information. Therefore, this method is suitable for application scenarios where reliable prior fault estimates are difficult to obtain. Using diverse real-world knowledge bases, we show that the proposed interactive query strategy is scalable, features decent reaction time, and outperforms both entropy-based and no-risk strategies on average w.r.t. required amount of user interaction.
RIO: Minimizing User Interaction in Ontology Debugging
Rodler, Patrick, Shchekotykhin, Kostyantyn, Fleiss, Philipp, Friedrich, Gerhard
Efficient ontology debugging is a cornerstone for many activities in the context of the Semantic Web, especially when automatic tools produce (parts of) ontologies such as in the field of ontology matching. The best currently known interactive debugging systems rely upon some meta information in terms of fault probabilities, which can speed up the debugging procedure in the good case, but can also have negative impact on the performance in the bad case. The problem is that assessment of the meta information is only possible a-posteriori. Consequently, as long as the actual fault is unknown, there is always some risk of suboptimal interactive diagnoses discrimination. As an alternative, one might prefer to rely on a tool which pursues a no-risk strategy. In this case, however, possibly well-chosen meta information cannot be exploited, resulting again in inefficient debugging actions. In this work we present a reinforcement learning strategy that continuously adapts its behavior depending on the performance achieved and minimizes the risk of using low-quality meta information. Therefore, this method is suitable for application scenarios where reliable a-priori fault estimates are difficult to obtain. Using problematic ontologies in the field of ontology matching, we show that the proposed risk-aware query strategy outperforms both active learning approaches and no-risk strategies on average in terms of required amount of user interaction.
Active Diagnosis via AUC Maximization: An Efficient Approach for Multiple Fault Identification in Large Scale, Noisy Networks
Bellala, Gowtham, Stanley, Jason, Scott, Clayton, Bhavnani, Suresh K.
The problem of active diagnosis arises in several applications such as disease diagnosis, and fault diagnosis in computer networks, where the goal is to rapidly identify the binary states of a set of objects (e.g., faulty or working) by sequentially selecting, and observing, (noisy) responses to binary valued queries. Current algorithms in this area rely on loopy belief propagation for active query selection. These algorithms have an exponential time complexity, making them slow and even intractable in large networks. We propose a rank-based greedy algorithm that sequentially chooses queries such that the area under the ROC curve of the rank-based output is maximized. The AUC criterion allows us to make a simplifying assumption that significantly reduces the complexity of active query selection (from exponential to near quadratic), with little or no compromise on the performance quality.
Query strategy for sequential ontology debugging
Shchekotykhin, Kostyantyn, Friedrich, Gerhard, Fleiss, Philipp, Rodler, Patrick
Debugging of ontologies is an important prerequisite for their wide-spread application, especially in areas that rely upon everyday users to create and maintain knowledge bases, as in the case of the Semantic Web. Recent approaches use diagnosis methods to identify causes of inconsistent or incoherent ontologies. However, in most debugging scenarios these methods return many alternative diagnoses, thus placing the burden of fault localization on the user. This paper demonstrates how the target diagnosis can be identified by performing a sequence of observations, that is, by querying an oracle about entailments of the target ontology. We exploit a-priori probabilities of typical user errors to formulate information-theoretic concepts for query selection. Our evaluation showed that the proposed method significantly reduces the number of required queries compared to myopic strategies. We experimented with different probability distributions of user errors and different qualities of the a-priori probabilities. Our measurements showed the advantageousness of information-theoretic approach to query selection even in cases where only a rough estimate of the priors is available.
Nets with Unreliable Hidden Nodes Learn Error-Correcting Codes
In a multi-layered neural network, anyone of the hidden layers can be viewed as computing a distributed representation of the input. Several "encoder" experiments have shown that when the representation space is small it can be fully used. But computing with such a representation requires completely dependable nodes. In the case where the hidden nodes are noisy and unreliable, we find that error correcting schemes emerge simply by using noisy units during training; random errors injected during backpropagation result in spreading representations apart. Average and minimum distances increase with misfire probability, as predicted by coding-theoretic considerations. Furthennore, the effect of this noise is to protect the machine against permanent node failure, thereby potentially extending the useful lifetime of the machine.